Health

COVID by the numbers

  1. Infectiousness of the Delta variant1:

    • Viral load of Delta variant 1260x that of the original
    • Time from exposure to first positive test 4 days, vs 6 days for the original
    • PCS cycle threshold value 24, vs 34 for the original (indicates a greater amount of virus in the sample)
    • Conclusion: faster replication rate + reduced incubation period + greater viral shedding = increased infectiousness and transmissibility
  2. Consequence of contracting the Delta variant of COVID2:

    • 120% increase in the likelihood of hospitalisation
    • 287% increase in the likelihood ICU admission
    • 137% increased risk of death
  3. Effectiveness of vaccines preventing symptomatic disease3

    • Delta variant:
      • Pfizer
        • One shot: 36%
        • Two shots: 88%
      • Astra Zeneca:
        • One shot: 30%
        • Two shots: 67%
    • Alpha (aka UK) variant after two shots:
      • Pfizer: 94%
      • Astra Zeneca: 75%
  4. In the US, since May, fully vaccinated people account for4

    • 1.1% of hospital admissions
    • 0.8% of deaths
  5. Vaccination and risk

    • Risk of blood clots from AstraZeneca vaccine: estimated to be 1 in 88,000 (0.001%)5
    • Risk of dying from such a blood clot: 1 in 2.1 million (0.00005%)
      • That is roughly the same risk as being struck by lightning6
    • Other sources of blood clot risk:
      • Flying: 1 in 4,656 (0.02%)7
      • Oral contraceptive pill: 1 in 3,000 (0.03%)8
    • COVID-19 poses 8 to 10 times the risk of blood clots (in the brain) than that of COVID-19 vaccines9

  1. Yet to be peer reviewed study from Guangdong CDC, China, May and June 2021:
    https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/93717
  1. Yet to be peer reviewed study from Ontario, Canada, quoted by Dr Norman Swan, Coronocast, 27 July 2021
  1. New England Journal of Medicine based on data from Public Health England published in May 2021: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/two-doses-pfizer-astrazeneca-shots-effective-against-delta-variant-study-finds-2021-07-21/
  1. Associated Press analysis of government data: https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-health-941fcf43d9731c76c16e7354f5d5e187
  1. Prof. Karlheinz Peter: https://theconversation.com/how-rare-are-blood-clots-after-the-astrazeneca-vaccine-what-should-you-look-out-for-and-how-are-they-treated-161280
  1. Associate. Prof. Hassan Vally: https://theconversation.com/concerned-about-the-latest-astrazeneca-news-these-3-graphics-help-you-make-sense-of-the-risk-162175
  1. The Absolute Risk of Venous Thrombosis after Air Travel: A Cohort Study of 8,755 Employees of International Organisations: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1989755/
  1. National Blood Clot Alliance, US: https://www.stoptheclot.org/learn_more/womens_health_faq/
  1. Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS): https://www.healthdirect.gov.au/thrombosis-with-thrombocytopenia-syndrome-tts


This information is of a general nature only and nothing on this site should be taken as personal financial or investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell a particular product.

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